No. 4/2025 | May 2025

Strengthening Regional Agency in the Middle East: Views from the Tehran Dialogue Forum 2025
Seksan Anantasirikiat*

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            Diplomats, policy practitioners and scholars gathered in Tehran on 18-19 May to discuss ongoing developments at the global and regional levels and their implications for foreign affairs. “Regional Agency in Global (Dis)order: Discord or Concord?” was selected as the main theme of this year Tehran Dialogue Forum. The Forum was attended by former and present high-level officials from 53 countries, including former president of Croatia, former deputy prime minister and foreign affairs of Bosnia and Herzegovina and foreign ministers from Iran’s neighbouring countries. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian presided over the event.

            This article recaps three key issues discussed at the Forum, namely changing global order and its implications, emerging regional order in the Middle East and the future ahead.

            The world order has been deteriorating due to great powers’ unilateral actions that go against “morality, international law and humanity”. The practice of diplomacy and international affairs will be more “power-based” than “rules-based”. Questions and concerns over efficiency and effectiveness of UN-led mechanisms were addressed by various speakers and participants. There are emerging challenges, such as climate disruption, technological breakthrough, economic fragmentation and geopolitical competition that require a conducive environment to strengthen robust international cooperation. Another issue discussed during the Forum was the increasing role of non-state actors in causing and leveraging international conflicts in both online and real world. This could lead to the escalation of hybrid warfare that mobilises domestic public or interest groups to support policy agendas of other countries and undermine the credibility of government at home and abroad.

            The possibility of nuclear war is another key global issue discussed at the Forum. A distinguished speaker stated during a session that there had been an increasing concern of possible nuclear war around the world as a result of ongoing military conflicts and great powers’ rivalry. This statement was argued by an “optimistic” speaker that although there was an increase in the number of nuclear warheads, there was no new state reportedly acquiring nuclear weapons. To foster global nuclear non-proliferation regime, the answer is in regionalisation and regionalism. There are various nuclear weapon-free zone at the regional level in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia that could be a reference for the Middle East. Countries in the region should be aware of any transfer of nuclear weapon capability from nuclear states to non-nuclear states. They should move toward achieving a regional agreement on technical cooperation for peaceful use to build trust and confidence.

            On emerging regional order in the Middle East, several speakers and participants assessed positively that the recent visit of President Donald Trump to the Middle East on May 13-16 was beneficial. This visit signaled that the Trump administration prioritised interests of countries in the region rather than a single issue of conflict. The constructive role of China in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023 was praised by Dr. Mohammad Farazmand, former Iran’s ambassador to Bahrain and Türkiye, as a “pivotal moment in their relations after seven years of severed diplomatic ties”. He also wrote that the resumption of bilateral relations “became a model for bilateral ties between these two key regional powers”.

            Another message from the Forum is that countries in the region should acknowledge the development of national economy and connectivity as a main source of regional and national stability. They should not allow ongoing conflicts to overshadow opportunities for future cooperation. During the opening session of the Forum, President Pezeshkian announced an investment in strategic infrastructure projects worth USD 140 million in the area of Kermanshah, Kurdistan.

            In the post COVID-19 era, there has been a discussion on logistics connectivity that connects Northeast Asia and Central Asia with the Middle East and Eastern Europe through Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. To build a conducive environment for enhancing logistics connectivity, some countries in Central Asia have been proactive in initiating platforms for dialogue and cooperation. For example, Turkmenistan hosted an international conference titled “Dialogue is a Guarantee of Peace” in December 2022. Tajikistan initiated the Dushanbe Process in 2018, focusing on two different issues: water management and counter-terrorism. The two countries have been working closely with relevant UN organisations.

            The future for the Middle East lies in regionalisation and regionalism. Countries in the region should depart from threat-based perception to find opportunities for peace and prosperity. As Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi wrote, “the region must shed outdated attitudes and imported assumptions that no longer reflect its people’s aspirations. A sustainable order must arise from within, grounded in mutual recognition, inclusive dialogue and shared responsibility”.

            It is time to maximise the benefit from existing regional platforms, such as Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO), Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS. Players in the region should create synergies between these platforms. Fundamentally, they share some core values and norms, including economic and development cooperation and support for multilateralism. To translate this vision into reality, it requires more than an aspiration. According to Dr. Saeed Khatibzadeh, Deputy Foreign Minister and President of the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS), “it demands courage, creativity and coordination. It calls for a shift away from short-term, transactional diplomacy toward long-range strategic thinking”. Lorenzo Somigli, a participant of the Forum and a columnist at Modern Diplomacy, said these attitudes reflect “a different Iran” that is “very dialoguing”. The country is “on the need to overcome artificial divisions often fueled from outside”.

            Regional agency matters in maintaining and nurturing peace and prosperity of countries in the region. In this context, it is possible for Iran or other countries to play a role as bridge-builder to connect different players and stakeholders. The future of the Middle East is based on the spirit of cooperation among nations inside the region, not great powers outside.

[*] Senior Researcher, International Studies Center (ISC)